| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Jul 14 2008 01:27 AM |
|
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things
|
94L is looking extremely healthy tonight. NHC just increased their "48-hour formation potential" risk level to "HIGH" from "MEDIUM," and I see no reason at all why this is not appropriate. Much like 92L, 94L is not merely some early season open wave, but already a well-formed area of low pressure with thunderstorms co-located within its heart. 94L has also remained nestled within an area of significant TPW, and favorable wind shear.
The actual text of the NHC TWO now reads
Quote:
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1500
MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
Over the past several hours convection has gone from light, moderate and scattered to widespread and deep, and now appears to be blowing up over an incipient LLC.