Given the flare ups haven't really stuck, I'm not so sure yet. If it does take it may gain quickly, but I'm not sure it has yet. It still looks to me that part of it is still in the Intra Tropical Convergence Zone, if more of it escapes I think it has a shot. The surface data that's there--not much-- suggest a surface low of some sort is trying to form.

Probably mid-late tomorrow, or Tuesday if it does. Positive factors tonight include some surface data showing a low level circulation, and copious amounts of lightning, which tend to favor strengthening (even rapid). Most tropical storms do not have any lightning when they become organized (except in extreme rapid intensification)

That said, it's likely model runs will bend more westward, which means the Windward islands should be the most interested in this, followed by the leeward. Track beyond that is in the realm of speculation, even so it seems likely more due westward.