CDMOrlando
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Jul 14 2008 07:23 PM
Re: Bertha Stalls SSE of Bermuda, Watching Two Other Things

[quote) ...I am recollecting a couple of storms from last year that just drove head-long into the Yucatan. If those models are correct on 94L, I suppose we might see a repeat of that. Anyone know if there is anything to nudge it north towards the end of the week, onto a track into the Gulf?




One year is different from another and you can not depend on storms taking the same track.

The steering current determine where a storm will go.

For Example, below are steering current that applied to Bertha

If you look here you will see the weak steering current from yesterday for Bertha.
CMISS

By today those currents changed to same site

As the large high over texas moves west the current flow/steering can and may well allow for a turn to the north. Depending on how strong 94l is at the time it reaches the area differnet level of steering currents could be in place.

Any speculation at this time is just that....



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center