Problem with models is that the timing is integrally related to intensity forecasting. If you are off on one you are off on the other. Track often can be seen but be off by a few day as often the path is set but the timing and intensity must jive or its garbage in and garbage out.

It has a large pocket, it spins nice on visible however it is not stacked properly and has a push me pull me motion to it's spin and I think it got separated from it's bottom half though not real sure if the convection running in tandem to it's south was part of it or another wave.