Hi Scott: not too sure I agree with your assessments. 94L is pretty much where the previous post placed it. It does look better now than this a.m. and is clearly attempting to tap lower latitude moisture to support TStorm development, and that looks a little better established this P.M. Looks a little sheared, which may keep verticle development in check and contribute to its pace of development being slow or lacking...still think it is better than 50% that this moves from interesting to classified.
GOM: the NHC discussion has this nailed...difluence and interaction with frontal troughs.. the surface low remains on shore over land. I think any point of development is potentially about 150 miles off the west coast and south of Panama City if any is going to occur at all...that seems to be where all the action is now.