Eastern GOM is suddenly interesting. There's no doubt about it. Closed low pressure - at least in the low to mid levels - is now clearly establishing itself just offshore of west-central Florida, and there are some indications that something might slowly be trying to take at the surface, as pressures have been a little bit low in the area.

This is an area of low pressure that is developing along a frontolyzing zone of horizontal wind shear, along the second in a series of cold fronts which have dropped well south and pulled up somewhat stationary. At this time, the cyclonic flow of offshore showers and thunderstorms is already well evident. Should this continue, it may start to become relatively easy for surface pressures to continue to fall right there and/or the other possibility is for a pre-existing area of surface low pressure that has been onshore to get effectively, perhaps suddenly, yanked offshore.

Time-frame wise, this disturbance may not have enough time over the waters before being itself pulled back onshore, to become much more than a named storm, but as always, this is not a given.

Whether or not a tropical or subtropical cyclone actually develops, this system still has lots of potential to produce copious rains from numerous squally showers and storms. It is undoubtedly land-locked, and the Florida west coast and/or peninsula would be its quickest and easiest targets.