|
|
|||||||
I've checked the NWS Tampa latest forecast product suite and they don't have any mention of a tropical system.. Neither do any of the NHC/ TPC Offshore waters or High Seas Forecasts. I did find this excerpt from the: (Tuesday Noon Model Discussion) MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 114 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008 VALID JUL 15/1200 UTC THRU JUL 19/0000 UTC MODEL TRENDS... ...UPPER LOW SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE ERN GULF INTO THE SOUTH... THE 12Z NAM VERSUS LAST EVENINGS 00Z/15 NAM INITIALIZE A STRONG MID TO UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA AT THE BEGINNING OF D1. DURING THE COURSE OF 24 HRS... THE 12Z NAM LIFTS THIS FORMIDABLE LOW FASTER OFF TO THE NORTH IN THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. ON DAY 2 OR 36 TO 60 HRS... THE 00Z NAM CATCHES UP BUT THE 12Z NAM IS STILL EAST OF THE 00Z RUN ON MOVING THE UPPER LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH INTO THE FL PANHANDLE SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS EASTWARD TREND WITH THE 500 MB LOW TRACK CONTINUES ON DAY 3 WITH THE 12Z NAM ON MOVING THE FEATURE UP INTO WRN GA/ERN AL... BASICALLY SUGGESTING THE SERN RIDGE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG. NOW THE 12Z GFS IS TRENDING WITH A MORE IDENTIFIABLE MID/UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE ARRIVING INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND GA COMPARED TO THE 00Z/15 GFS. MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES... ...UPPER LOW SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE ERN GULF INTO THE SOUTH... THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE FORMIDABLE/STRONGER CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW FORMING OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA IN THE NEAR TERM AND THIS FEATURE TO GRADUALLY LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE THROUGH THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND OFFSHORE OF THE FL PENINSULA BUT SHOULD DELIVER HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE ON DAY 1 AND 2. BETWEEN 48 TO 60 HRS... THE UPPER LOW AND POSSIBLE SURFACE REFLECTION WILL SLIDE INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND LIFT INTO WRN GA/ERN AL OR AROUND THE SERN RIDGE AXIS. THIS SHOULD HELP DEVELOP HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FL NORTH INTO THE DROUGHT STRICKEN SOUTHEAST/SOUTH ON DAY 3. HPC IS GOING TO SUGGEST FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH LAST NIGHTS 00Z/15 HI RES ECMWF ON THE HANDLING OF THIS MID TO UPPER LOW AND POSSIBLE SURFACE REFLECTION OUT THROUGH 84 HRS. *********************************** QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 600 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008 FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION VALID JUL 16/0000 UTC THRU JUL 19/0000 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAY 1 (Tonight thru 6 pm EDT Wednesday) ...FL/SERN U.S... WV/MDLS SEEM IN GD AGREEMENT WITH ERN GULF MID/UPR LOW PSTN/DVLPMENT THAT WL CONT TO PUMP DEEP TRPCL MSTR INTO/OVR THE REGION. PWS (PWS-possible/ probable rain totals)ARE FCST TO BE AOA TWO INCHES WITH DECENT DEEP LYRD ONSHORE FLOW INTO SWRN FL AND ACRS THE PENINSULA. WEAK BNDRY ACRS NRN FL TO THE SERN U.S. CST WL HELP FOCUS LIFT AND CNVCTN THRU THE PD. THERE SHLD BE A STG DIURNAL PTRN TO THE CVNCTN...BUT THE WCST (West Coast) OF FL COULD SEE HVY AMTS EVEN ERLY IN THE MRNG (Early in the Morning!) ASSOCD WITH THE SEA BREEZE. CNVCTN SHLD MOV ACRS FL FM W TO E DURG THE DAY...BUT MOV E TO W INTO THE SERN U.S.. THE DEPTH OF MSTR WL EASILY SUPPORT WDSPRD MOD/HVY RNFL AMTS WITH LCLLY VRY HVY AMTS OVR PORTIONS OF FL. (Locally very heavy amounts over portions of FL.) DAYS 2 AND 3... ( 6PM EDT Wednesday thru 6 PM EDT July 19th) ...GULF COAST/FLORIDA/CAROLINAS... A MID LVL TROF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH A GROWING MDL CONSENSUS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO OR OVER THE FL PANHANDLE ALONG A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT BY WED NIGHT. SRLY/SELY H85 (5000ft) FLOW OF 25 TO 35 KTS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA AND EXTEND NEWD UP ALONG THE GA/SC COASTLINE. THIS WILL HELP POOL PWATS (Possible/ Probable rainfall totals) WELL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY AND PROMOTE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LOCALLY VERY HVY RAINFALL. ENHANCED LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ASSOC WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND THE BNDRY... COUPLED WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED INSTABILITY AND PERSISTENT MID LVL SHRTWV ENERGY SHOULD HELP PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD TEND TO BE SLOW-MOVING AND HENCE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ENHANCED TOTALS AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE. MANUAL QPF ESSENTIALLY REPRESENTS A CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/GFS/00Z ECMWF. (edits in parenthesis are by danielw) Layman's translation of the above... If you are in an area that Flash Floods, please be prepared to move to Higher Ground when necessary~danielw |