danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Jul 16 2008 03:18 AM
Re: GOM...Close to Home

I've checked the NWS Tampa latest forecast product suite and they don't have any mention of a tropical system.. Neither do any of the NHC/ TPC Offshore waters or High Seas Forecasts.

I did find this excerpt from the:
(Tuesday Noon Model Discussion)

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
114 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008

VALID JUL 15/1200 UTC THRU JUL 19/0000 UTC

MODEL TRENDS...

...UPPER LOW SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE ERN GULF INTO THE SOUTH...
THE 12Z NAM VERSUS LAST EVENINGS 00Z/15 NAM INITIALIZE A STRONG
MID TO UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA AT THE
BEGINNING OF D1. DURING THE COURSE OF 24 HRS... THE 12Z NAM LIFTS
THIS FORMIDABLE LOW FASTER OFF TO THE NORTH IN THE ERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ON DAY 2 OR 36 TO 60 HRS... THE 00Z NAM CATCHES UP BUT THE
12Z NAM IS STILL EAST OF THE 00Z RUN ON MOVING THE UPPER LOW AND
INVERTED TROUGH INTO THE FL PANHANDLE SPREADING WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTH. THIS EASTWARD TREND WITH THE 500 MB LOW TRACK CONTINUES ON
DAY 3 WITH THE 12Z NAM ON MOVING THE FEATURE UP INTO WRN GA/ERN
AL... BASICALLY SUGGESTING THE SERN RIDGE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG. NOW THE 12Z GFS IS TRENDING WITH A MORE IDENTIFIABLE
MID/UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE
ARRIVING INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND GA COMPARED TO THE 00Z/15 GFS.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...

...UPPER LOW SLIDING NORTH THROUGH THE ERN GULF INTO THE SOUTH...
THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
FORMIDABLE/STRONGER CLOSED MID TO UPPER LOW FORMING OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA IN THE NEAR TERM AND THIS FEATURE TO
GRADUALLY LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL BE THROUGH THE ERN GULF
OF MEXICO AND OFFSHORE OF THE FL PENINSULA BUT SHOULD DELIVER
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE ON DAY 1 AND 2. BETWEEN 48 TO
60 HRS... THE UPPER LOW AND POSSIBLE SURFACE REFLECTION WILL SLIDE
INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND LIFT INTO WRN GA/ERN AL OR AROUND THE
SERN RIDGE AXIS. THIS SHOULD HELP DEVELOP HEAVY RAINFALL FROM FL
NORTH INTO THE DROUGHT STRICKEN SOUTHEAST/SOUTH ON DAY 3.

HPC IS GOING TO SUGGEST FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE WITH LAST
NIGHTS 00Z/15 HI RES ECMWF ON THE HANDLING OF THIS MID TO UPPER
LOW AND POSSIBLE SURFACE REFLECTION OUT THROUGH 84 HRS.
***********************************

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
600 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUL 16/0000 UTC THRU JUL 19/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR

DAY 1 (Tonight thru 6 pm EDT Wednesday)
...FL/SERN U.S...
WV/MDLS SEEM IN GD AGREEMENT WITH ERN GULF MID/UPR LOW
PSTN/DVLPMENT THAT WL CONT TO PUMP DEEP TRPCL MSTR INTO/OVR THE
REGION. PWS (PWS-possible/ probable rain totals)ARE FCST TO BE AOA TWO INCHES WITH DECENT DEEP LYRD
ONSHORE FLOW INTO SWRN FL AND ACRS THE PENINSULA. WEAK BNDRY ACRS
NRN FL TO THE SERN U.S. CST WL HELP FOCUS LIFT AND CNVCTN THRU THE
PD. THERE SHLD BE A STG DIURNAL PTRN TO THE CVNCTN...BUT THE WCST (West Coast)
OF FL COULD SEE HVY AMTS EVEN ERLY IN THE MRNG (Early in the Morning!) ASSOCD WITH THE SEA
BREEZE. CNVCTN SHLD MOV ACRS FL FM W TO E DURG THE DAY...BUT MOV E
TO W INTO THE SERN U.S..
THE DEPTH OF MSTR WL EASILY SUPPORT
WDSPRD MOD/HVY RNFL AMTS WITH LCLLY VRY HVY AMTS OVR PORTIONS OF
FL. (Locally very heavy amounts over portions of FL.)

DAYS 2 AND 3... ( 6PM EDT Wednesday thru 6 PM EDT July 19th)

...GULF COAST/FLORIDA/CAROLINAS...

A MID LVL TROF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
GROWING MDL CONSENSUS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT INVOF THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO OR OVER THE FL PANHANDLE
ALONG A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT BY WED NIGHT.
SRLY/SELY H85 (5000ft) FLOW OF 25 TO 35 KTS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL
PENINSULA AND EXTEND NEWD UP ALONG THE GA/SC COASTLINE. THIS WILL
HELP POOL PWATS (Possible/ Probable rainfall totals) WELL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED BNDRY AND PROMOTE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LOCALLY
VERY HVY RAINFALL.
ENHANCED LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ASSOC WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW AND THE BNDRY... COUPLED WITH DIURNALLY ENHANCED
INSTABILITY AND PERSISTENT MID LVL SHRTWV ENERGY SHOULD HELP
PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WHICH SHOULD TEND TO BE
SLOW-MOVING AND HENCE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ENHANCED TOTALS
AS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE. MANUAL QPF ESSENTIALLY
REPRESENTS A CONSENSUS OF THE NAM/GFS/00Z ECMWF.

(edits in parenthesis are by danielw)

Layman's translation of the above... If you are in an area that Flash Floods, please be prepared to move to Higher Ground when necessary~danielw



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