I"ve been more bullish than some on 94L all along, but even today it hasn't gotten it quite together..the long Visible loop confirms the LLC remains separated from most of the convection which is now NE of it. I have a feeling the ULL to the NNW of it is causing shear over the LLC. I'm nervous about it though because of its location and if it were to "ramp up" it would pose a threat into the GOM...if it remains weak it will chug merrily into Central America.
Right now this doesn't seem to be any further along than it was two days ago when I last took a long look.
I will reduce my probability to those posted by the host about 40% (down from 50). Has the recon data been posted?