I sort of buy in to the same take. The surface low is meant to be down around 15-16N, if you are using the same stuff some of the models still are, and 16N if you are following along with NRL. That is about where our old, almost, but never really quite closed-off, surface circulation has been trending. However, with that old center being a part of the much larger, elongated and potent wave... having had what could be argued to have been a benefit of the ULL imparting much fanning flow aloft... very deep convection along the trof tonight has possibly generated another surface low, altogether... or compelled the original surface low to jump a good bit NNW.. Whatever the case is, it may be closed... and now possibly in the vicinity of 17-18N, 82-83W. Other circulations almost undoubtedly still exist in the stew, but with NOAA Buoy 42057 located at 16.83N 81.50W having just had its winds flip around to the SSE and then S, while also experiencing a marked pick-up in speed, and a brand new phase of lowering pressure, the easy argument would be for a surface low center of some sort to exist to its west.

There looks to be a fairly good chance that a surface low is in the process of closing off, if it hasn't done so already. With sustained winds already blowing at and in excess of 34 knots, should NHC be able to verify to their satisfaction that this is so, it's Dolly Madison for breakfast. If the low hasn't closed off, or if they do not have enough confidence in these tentative indications, we'll probably wait around for another recon trip in there. Named, or unnamed, Yucatan vacationers are probably in for a good bit of tropical flogging.