typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Jul 20 2008 04:57 PM
Re: TS Dolly Heads Toward Cozumel, Cristobal Drifts NE, Bertha Now Extratropical

RE Dolly: There is a TUTT interfering with the deep layer wind profiles, causing some "denting" in an otherwise decent outflow. This is causing a bit of asymmetry in the cloud pattern, as well as preventing a uniform intensification. Until this feature finally disconnects from Dolly's outflow levels, this will likely prevent any period of more profound intensification. That, and Dolly's interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula will keep Dolly from becoming very strong. However, post clearing the peninsula, most large scale dynamical models predict an anticyclone over the BOC/western Gulf, and with amply warm waters in the Gulf there will be opportunity for more discerned development. Of course...none of this is intended to state that Dolly can't become stronger, just that the environment at this time suggests holding her own. Persons along the TX and Mexico coast certainly need to monitor the progress of this system.


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