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Check out the new models. Basically, the farthest south of the early-cycle models, the GFNI, puts landfall 100 miles south of the US-Mexico border as a 74-knot storm. The farthest north, the CLP5, puts landfall literally on Galveston Island. I think we are going to be dealing with a Texas landfall. The spread in the 00z early-cycle models is 350 miles, not too bad for three days out! Couldn't attach the file (too big), so I uploaded it to my website: http://www.jasonsweathercenter.com/images/00z-21%20early-cycle%20models.png |