I agree with the posts about the recent track of Dolly, being more north-northwestward than pure northwestward, and the fact that NHC didn't modify their 11pm forecast for the difference in initial position. It appears from the IR loop that Dolly is at ~20.5N, 85W, off a bit from the 11pm initial coordinates of 19.6N, 85.8N. Franklin did state that... "IF A CENTER REFORMS TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION"... the intensity forecast could be off if Dolly misses the Yucatan, so the hurricane specialist have noticed the recent change in motion/change in location of the low-level circulation center. As we all see, forcing consistency between forecasts sometimes produces errors. Observations should trump model output, but when the observed phenomenon is also highly erratic, errors are bound to occur. If Dolly continues to strengthen the next several model runs will become more realistic as they get a better handle on what Dolly is up to. Those interests in TX should keep a close eye on Ms. Dolly.