I hate to add to the mix of bad news but the Model Discussion is out. Here are the Dolly related excerpts.
Full text at: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
114 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

VALID JUL 21/0000 UTC THRU JUL 24/1200 UTC
...T.S. DOLLY...

AVAILABLE SFC DATA SUGGESTS THAT REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THERE IS A
CLOSED CIRCULATION... LOWEST SFC PRESSURES ARE LOWER THAN DEPICTED
IN THE GFS ANALYSIS.

MODEL TRENDS...
...T.S. DOLLY...

THE 00Z NAM TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE 18Z RUN BUT THERE IS A
PRONOUNCED NWD TREND OVER THE PAST 12-24 HRS. THE 00Z NAM IS MUCH
STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. ESPECIALLY IN THE PAST 12 HRS THE
GFS HAS TRENDED NWD WITH DOLLY THRU F36 EARLY TUE. AFTER THAT
TIME TRENDS DIMINISH TO THE POINT THAT GFS RUNS CONVERGE ALONG THE
WRN GULF COAST BY F60 EARLY WED... AND THEN THE 00Z GFS TRENDS A
LITTLE SWD OF MOST PREVIOUS RUNS.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
...T.S. DOLLY...

THE GFS/NAM SHOW SIMILAR HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM THRU F24 LATE MON.
AFTER THAT TIME THE NAM TRENDS STRONGER THAN THE GFS AND
EVENTUALLY FARTHER NWD AS WELL. ONCE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE WRN
GULF COAST THE NAM MAINTAINS A NWWD MOTION WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
SYSTEM OVER THE COAST. THE NAM TRACK IS ON THE NRN EDGE OF 18Z
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BUT FITS MORE COMFORTABLY WITHIN THE SPREAD
OF 21Z SREF MEMBERS. THE UKMET/CANADIAN GLBL/12Z ECMWF ARE S OF
THE NAM TRACK TO VARYING DEGREES BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES
THE WRN GULF COAST. CONSULT LATEST TPC ADVISORIES AND DISCUSSIONS
FOR FURTHER INFO REGARDING T.S. DOLLY.