| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Jul 22 2008 08:35 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Warnings Up in Texas Brownsville to Port O'Connor
|
Middle of the night and it appears that finally the ULL to Dolly's southwest is filling in a little bit more and continuing west at around the same pace or even a touch faster, while Dolly's forward motion is slowing down, and perhaps even starting to trend WNW once again.
This development has greatly lessened the shear and infiltration of dry air within Dolly's southern half. With outflow starting to improve now in this area, along with the increased overall moisture content, convection is currently taking off - and taking off from what looks like right over the LLC - making for an almost regular CDO-type scene.
The most recent vort fix, that was made just about the time conditions started turning more favorable, found:
Estimated Max Surface Winds 48.6KT (55.9mph 90.0km/h) *
Position of the center: 23° 14' N 093° 28' W (23.2°N 93.5°W)
Minimum pressure: 997mb (29.44in)
It appears that Dolly has entered a sweet spot, for now. That SSTs are not as warm ahead becomes almost irrelevant, given the much-improved atmospheric environment. As a deepening cyclone, she may begin to respond to a slight developing weakness in the mid-level high to her north, and complete that trip to the Texas coastline. Otherwise, a continued westerly track will place landfall somewhere between Tampico, Mx and Brownsville, but which would still keep a sizable portion of the RFQ along the south Texas shoreline.