3:00PM EDT / 2:00 CDT 23 July 2008 Update

Dolly has made landfall at South Padre Island.

9:33AM EDT / 8:33 CDT 23 July 2008 Update
From recon reports, it appears that Dolly is now a Category 2 Hurricane.

7:45AM EDT / 6:45 CDT 23 July 2008 Update
Dolly is nearing Category 2 strength as it heads generally toward the Rio Grande river.

Pressure has fallen off this morning, and Dolly is looking better organized than last night.

Dolly's forward motion is slower this morning, and it still appears to be slowing down, which could cause rainfall totals over Southern Texas/Northern Mexico to be extreme (10 inches in some spots, possibly more). This area has had a bit of a drought lately,so some rain is welcome, these however, will likely cause flooding.

Hopefully everyone has prepared. It may be a lot of those that stayed at or near the coast will say "I'll never stay there during a hurricane again" very soon.

Good luck and God bless all those in the path of the system.

Original Update
Dolly has been upgraded to Hurricane Status, during the evening hours conditions will deteriorate in Southern Texas and northern Mexico. Hurricane Warnings are up from Rio San Fernando in Mexico across the border to Corpus Christi.

Dolly is also slowing down forward motion, which could prolong the period of heavy rainfall and winds over the area.

Dolly's internal structure has improved this afternoon. Recent IR and hi resolution visible satellite imagery strongly argue for the production of an eye. We are also see the explosive genesis of a central dense overcast (CDO) feature. This combined with recent reconnaissance report of 75kt flight level wind has prompted National Hurricane Center to upgrade Dolly to hurricane status.

As of the 5pm EDT update, her forward motion has been decreasing slightly and is now northwest at 10mph. Central pressure was approximately 986mb and her maximum winds were set at 75mph.

Oceanic heat content remains is good, shear has relaxed considerable over what Dolly experienced with the TUTT yesterday, and upper level divergence is looking good with clear anticyclonic outflow established. There is just ever so slightly some impinging southerly winds do to the TUTTs final last tentacles of contact, but it appears these are too weak at this point to be much of any significant mitigation to development. It is for these reasons that the official intensity by NHC is set a little higher than the more robust model solutions, now taking Dolly to 80kts just prior to making landfall. It should be noted however, that a couple of higher resolution models (discussed below) are a tad slower and farther north along the coast. The longer Dolly stays over the warm waters of the Gulf, the stronger is could become.

There was some contention during the afternoon on where/when Dolly will cross the coastline. Earlier runs had somewhat tightly clustered around an approximate Brownsville landing. However, a couple of the higher resolution models, including the WRF and the HWRF, are bringing Dolly up farther along the TX Coast before turning her left and onto land. For this reason, folks up into the Bend area of the TX Coast need to monitor this with due diligence. This is also a good time to remind people not to focus on the exact location the actual eye crosses the coast, and to pay close attention to the wind field radii information.

This is also going to be a slow mover as it comes inland. Citizens in the interior parts of southern TX and near the Rio Grande valley need to take early precautionary measure to protect against the threat of flooding, in typically vulnerable areas, for what is likely to be a protracted period of excessive rainfall while Dolly slowly winds down.

John (typhoon_tip)

Event Related Links

Power Outage map for Brownsville Area

{{radarlink|bro|Brownsville, TX Radar}}
{{radarlink|crp|Corpus Christi, TX Radar}}
Texas/South Plains Radar Composite

Southeast Radar Composite (loop)
South Padre Island Blog

Local Media:

Brownsville Herald
The Monitor
Valley Morning Star
KGBT 4 News
KRGV Newschannel 5
KURV 710 News/Talk

Webcams:
Coastal Surfing Pier Cam (Corpus Christi)
South Padre Island Cams: BeachCam SurfCam Bay Cam
Rio Grande Cam in Mission, TX
Matamoros/Brownsvillle Cams

Recordings:
Dolly Brownsville Level 3 Radar
South Padre Beach Cam
South Padre Island Surf Cam -- High Res
South Padre Island Bay Cam (Down)
South Padre Island Radisson Resort Beach Cam
Bob Hall Pier Corpus Christi

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