cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Aug 03 2008 04:03 PM
Re: Gulf of Mexico Watching and Wave Watching

91L is giving us a run for our money. Looks like recon is very close to closing a center off somewhere in the vicinity of 28N 88W. If they can't close it off, it's not for trying, that's for sure. Pressure may be down around 1007mb, or lower now (based on flight level to surface extrap). Max sustained surface winds outside the coc as measured by SFMR may already be suggesting up to a 35-40 knot range (1-min average). System does not have the best environment for development, sandwiched between too large swaths of hostile wind and/or very dry air, but if it starts to hook more to the west, it could outrun the ULL approaching from its southeast, while also moving along just south of the dry, stable zone to its north. In fact, the ULL to its southeast may stay just far enough away to provide a healthy outflow channel, should 91L organize more.


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