typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Sun Aug 10 2008 02:47 PM
Re: Say hey Fay (time to play)

Quote:



sorry to quote the entire thing, but looking at the GFS run, it bears this scenario out exactly.




The 12z Canadian model is very ominous for Florida and much of the SE Coast! By D6, it has the appearance of a Cat 1/2 hurricane entering the SE Bahamas, moving WNW in a favorable deep layer environment. This is an evolution of 92L into a mean looking system with potential to become powerful if taken verbatim - which of course is something we should never do!

However, although not as intense, the 12z UKMET run has virtually identical TC system placement with both 92L and the trailing developing system, as the Canadian. Interestingly, the GFS does not like 92L much...It instead develops the trailing system mightily into similarities to Hank's discussion regarding the particular system. They did not apparently run the GFDL for 92L on the 12z run, which is disappointing and actually odd that it was not.



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