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Apparently the combination of the model runs and boredom has raised the eyebrows at TPC/ NHC. RECON is tasked with an INVEST for tomorrow. Latest SHIPS model has backed down a bit on the Max winds at 120 hours. Now down to 78kts... still a Hurricane. 93L now being run on SHIPS. Looks to be a lot higher in latitude than 92L. Current 92L position is 11.6N/ 48.1W 93L forecast for nearly the same longitude is at 96hours. 15.6N/ 47.5W. That would make in roughly 4 degrees or 240nm north of 92L's location. Early SHIPS on 93L look like a Fish Spinner! NOUS42 KNHC 111530 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1130 AM EDT MON 11 AUGUST 2008 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z AUGUST 2008 TCPOD NUMBER.....08-072 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROCACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES) FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. 12/1800Z B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST C. 12/1545Z D. 14.0N 55.0W E. 12/1730Z TO 12/2200Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 A. 13/0600Z B. AFXXX 02DDA CYCLONE C. 13/0300Z D. 15.0N 57.0W E. 13/0500Z TO 13/0900Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 13/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT. NOAA PLANS TO FLY TWO DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS DEPARTING BARBADOS AT 13/1800Z AND 14/0600Z. |