MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 13 2008 12:08 PM
Re: Looking Around the Basin

Normally you look for a variety of factors looking to see if a depression has formed or not. In this case the wave east of the islands (92L) is still not matching enough for this, and probably won't today. Mostly the mention of it on the main page is a way to say hey there's something that could happen next week, so you may want to check over the weekend to see if it has developed or not. I do not want it to come anywhere near us, developed or not.

Recon, Dvorak numbers, satellite imagery and radar if you have it are some of the better ways to determine if it has formed or not (usually in that order). Recon hasn't found anything (and it's unusual recon goes this far east) the Dvorak numbers never reached around 2.0 and more are reasons it isn't a depression. And water vapor satellite along with visual are some of the better ways that I look for.

Right now with 92L, it doesn't look all that good. It just shows shearing and disorganized system at present, and it probably won't have a better shot at organization until if/when it gets north of the islands if it lasts that long.

Usually I"ll just read the NHC's data and look at the raw images/data myself before updating the main page, and before i read anyone else's take on the system too. Only after posting an update will I go check other opinions and then make notes on it after that.



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