The elongated center of 92L is just NW of the T-Storm Convection....you can clearly see the shear over 92Ls position. If the center was a couple degrees east it would be in alot better shear zone/env. I put the position or (Trough)near 17-18N 58W as off 11am eastern.

The current flare up is due to daytime interaction with the upper low to its west. I would want to see convection at night and persistance and the LLC consolidate more. Dry Air is still inplace but eroding. Current threat right now is the shear axis of 15-20kts while it drops to under 10kts just a couple dg east of there.

(Edited to remove Forecast Lounge material.)