92L has an impressive structure for an unclassified system. it does look like the continuous burst of heavy convection is tailing the surface wave/low, which will need to straighten out before the system can start really rolling. expect recon will fix a developing storm later today... maybe already fay when they get there... that ought to graze very close to the northern islands. not sure how much proximity to hispaniola will temper the development, but a steady wnw track toward the southeastern bahamas through sunday-monday looks good and has plenty of model support. from there it gets iffy. model runs since early in the week have trended further west with the cut-off low, heading it for the southern high plains and rockies, instead of the red river valley and texas. as a result the heights aren't going to rise as quickly over the midwest and mid-atlantic, with the troughiness hanging on for longer than earlier projected.
when the system gets to the bahamas and reaches the periphery of the ridge it will be in a rather flat area of upper steering and perhaps drift northward as shown on some of the models. gfs is trying to feed the system northeast and then into an upper cut-off near the mid-atlantic on the latest run. most of the globals and the hurricane models have it east of florida early next week, either waiting for some shortwave trough to dig more in response to it and whip it northeast, or for the troughiness to bypass and for ridging to slowly build in. complicating matters is the system to the east, 93L, which has shifted its emphasis southwestward to near 15/44 but is still shown by various models involving with the advancing inverted trough in the central atlantic and coming close to the east. other missing parts of the equation are feedback, i.e., the globals tend to show a weak system near the southeast, and with 93L, but will they pump the nearby mid-atlantic ridge up, and how will this affect rising heights over the continent, wave speed, etc. once 93L is clear of hispaniola, and likely developed, we will have a much better idea on intensity and maybe have a better version of the synoptic picture for the globals to chew on. model runs ought to become much more reliable over the weekend.
side note that another fairly impressive wave is now passing south of the cape verdes has another system written all over it. pretty far to the south, too.
HF 1536z14august