cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Aug 14 2008 10:13 PM
Re: Watching the Wave Near the Virgin Islands

That 92L has yet to come together should be of some extra concern to those of us wondering about possible landfall locations. For now, and until things finally come together (assuming they do), it is still unpleasantly difficult for models and forecasters to get a good grip on the vigorous wave/low's's likely trajectory and possible interactions ahead. The only good news, if there is good news, is that it is not yet a tropical cyclone, which does sort of allow for the slim possibility, however increasingly unlikely, that it never does become a tropical cyclone.

Standard rules applying, a shallower, less-developed system will tend to track more often with the low-level flow. However, the most recent 92L has for the better part of 48 hours or so, also been represented by the impressive mid-level circulation, which keeps trying to reform a permanent center closer to its center, so far without much luck. Without any real clarity to all of the mumbo-jumbo, if there is any certainty, it is almost certain that locations as potentially far left as Texas and as far right as the vast blue Atlantic ocean remain in play. In a perverse way, the sooner the feature can pull it together, the better. Model runs might become a lot more dependable, and if it pulls it together strongly, perhaps all the hand wringing will be for naught as it could just hook out to sea before coming too close to land.

Right behind 92L, 93L is very close to being green-balled (reactivated). As Clark points out, just one solid convective burst might very well force NHC's hand at putting it back on their wave tracking map all colored in red. It is worth noting that when these two were both a bit closer and battling for their lives in an unfavorable atmosphere, it wasn't clear if they wouldn't just cancel each other out. No longer the case. 92 and 93 both now have more than enough breathing room -and better conditions- to become big headaches in the days to come. "93" already appears to have a broad, yet closed low either at, or just slightly above the surface, and pressures appear to be down around 1008mb.



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