weathernet
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Aug 15 2008 09:58 AM
Re: 93L???

I was just about to post the same sentiments, as did Rich. Basically in 92L's formative stage, it is problematic in cases involving the interaction with land - specifically high terrain, for inflow to not be entirely interupted. Where a tighter more developed core might simply be destroyed altogether, or perhaps jump and reform elsewhere, this is a case where a less organized and broad low is trying to consolodate. Perhaps this goes to the point that we really have quite a broad surface circulation, unlike some other smaller disturbances. Even if 92L were to be upgraded to a tropical depression at this time, one would have a difficult time claiming that the center of the depression is located at....... If pressed to do so, would practically say the center of the depression "was Puerto Rico" - and thus not too scientific.

Until the LLC either fills or gets destroyed by fully moving over land, than we may not realize the next stage of development until the system has both the space and inflow to finally vertically establish itself. Remember, there are large envelope disturbances and waves that in time turn into large and very formidable hurricanes, and others because of their overall size and organization ( given proper conditions to develop ) never really consolodate at all. Smaller tropical cyclones can whip up quicker, deepen faster and perhaps more likely to be severely disrupted by light shear, land, and other factors. I believe we are dealing with a system that is simply broad enough to need the "real estate" and time to finally get its act together. If this in fact occurs in a day or two, and if south of the Greater Antilles, than the models will simply start all over and the potential threat will then be a great deal more clear than it is right now. At this time, I think ( with not a ton of confidence ) that the majority of the remaining circulation will be south of Hispanola rather than north of it.



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