Michael, I would have to echo your sentiments here. I was quite surprised after a LONG day getting prepped for Open house tonight and the start of school on Monday, to get home, click on the NHC and find the center of a hurricane cone passing DIRECTLY over my location. OK...I have followed these things long enough not to get too hyper about that 'cone' at this point. Still a jolt like a Cuban espresso! I, too have not been impressed with intensity forcasts this season at all. Checking the southeastern GOM water temps, this thing will have a LOT of heat fuel to work with, especially if it hangs a bit south of Cuba. Also, do not downplay how the interaction with land can pull weaker systems off of the best model quidance tracks. I would say that everyone from the eastern Bahamas to Louisiana needs to watch this closely until the models are in significantly better agreement.......if it gets into the Fla Straits due south of the Keys (as the current forcast suggest), all bets are off on intensity!