Fay is moving at a good clip, so I suspect that the thrashing its circulation will take over central and western Hispanola will be minimized to some extent, although it may very well drop to TD status tomorrow morning. So far, the circulation has held up very well, and Fay will probably intensify quickly between the time it exits Hispanola and the time it reaches Cuba.

It is far too early to determine the eventual track of the storm. Too many unknowns exist to give us a very good feel for the track even during the near term. The strength of the storm, possible relocations of the center, and when and to what extent the weakness develops in the ridge to the north, will all significantly affect future movement. As of now, we don't have a good handle on any of these variables.

Anyone from the northern Gulf coast to the southeast Atlantic coast should begin preparing for a possible storm early next week. The current forecast brings Fay into Florida as early as Monday, so there really isn't much time to prepare. Preparations should be completed over the weekend.