My best advice would be to not lock in on the model line directly. There is still much uncertainty on the eventual track and intensity of Fay. What I would advise is to get your supplies now. When a watch or warning is issued, Floridians will go crazy, and the gas stations and stores will be a mob scene. The reality with tropical systems is even if your not under the direct landfall location, the weather can get real nasty. I am a news cameraman and was sixty miles inland from Dolly when it came ashore in Texas, and we had sustained winds of at least 40 miles an hour, with gusts way above that amount. To sum it up, dont panic, but prepare. It adds peace of mind to you, and at the end of it, you will use what you buy now anyway