StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Sat Aug 16 2008 08:47 PM
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?

Quote:


You really think that Fay has the potential of making landfall as a Cat.4?!

From what I read in this forum a strong Cat.1 is the max. that we should be expecting, no?




Potential? Absolutely.

Likely? Not likely.

Is a strong Cat 1 the MAX that we should be expecting? Certainly not. Cat 1 is what is currently forecast. Generally speaking, three days out the forecast can be off +/- two categories or so. In the last few years, we've seen the NHC become much better at track predictions, but intensity predictions are much more difficult.

Fay still could very well fizzle and be little more than a tropical storm as she passes over Florida, or she could possibly strengthen to a fairly strong hurricane. In all likelihood, you will not be affected much by Fay. But as someone who lived at the 2004 storm nexus, I can say that it's much better to be prepared and not get much than to be unprepared and have to deal with the aftermath.



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