Remembering what Clark posted much earlier today as to what to watch in the synoptic pattern north and west of Fay I note a couple of things. First, in actual experience I was quite surprised to receive the rain we experienced in W.Central Florida today which was generally moving down the state and west to east. Yesterday,the whole scenario of the weakening frontal trough across N. Florida was pushed to the north, and that was expected to continue. To note the change so quickly today was really quite surprising.
The WV loop suggests that the high which is moving along over Fay may have spent its westward energy and the weakness is indeed over S. Florida. This morning I thought it was pushing up the peninsula just north of the lake but this evening it is again south of the lake. The line of difluence between the troughiness to the north and the high to the SE seems to be central Florida.
My point is that Fay will not cross that line and will turn about 100 miles or so east of that line IF I am correct, then that would mean a South Florida solution and not a west coast solution. This scenario seems to be fuled by a vigouous trough over the Great Lakes that pushed south and pushed the frontal trough further south too. This scenario will have to play out tomorrow as well, else a more westward solution would be in play.
I don't see any progress eastward in the ULL over Colorado and don't see that as a player.
We will know more on this in the morning. Fay continues to reorganize and will be stronger tomorrow.