I'm not happy with the models. I can see the moisture along the Gulf but I can also see the dry air to the north of the storm slowly evaporating on the WV loop.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

The door way north is very open yet the models have pulled left. They again how can you trust a model that is as fickle as the GFDL is (to name one) that switches back and forth like windshield wipers? And, I believe the models are reading Fay as a weak storm which she is but will she stay weak? For some reason I think the more interaction she has with land the more she tends to flare up and tonight there is strong convection forming near her center.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

The ULL to her west is hard to read and looks like it is filling in. And, the moisture in the Gulf is strong but pushing east as it is streaming from Ms to Alabama to northern Florida fast.

I keep feeling something is off here and we are overestimating something or overestimating something.

And... as said she is not Charley nor is she Cleo. Both were stronger storms with more centers that were easier to follow.

Storms do quirky things when they come off of Cuba. That FACT cannot be emphasized enough.