Mike,

The big thing is that the 00z models have a lot of dropsonde observations from a high-altitude NOAA flight ahead of the storm. While it's still early in the current model cycle with just the GFS and NAM in, we didn't seen any change in the GFS and now the NAM is in the same area as the GFS (whereas before it had been further east). These observations give us a better idea for the current strength of the subtropical ridge, therefore giving the models a better idea of its current strength.

As many studies have shown, small changes in model initial conditions can lead to large changes in short- and medium-term forecasts. Yet, despite having new data, we've not seen those changes. What does that suggest? It suggests that the models had a decent idea on the initial setup of the ridge all along. Comparing the 18 hour forecast from yesterday's 06z GFS to the current 500 mb pattern, the model had a very good forecast with the cutoff upper low, ridge extent and strength, and east coast trough extent and strength.

Simply put, everything is on track thus far for a landfall somewhere in the midst of the track guidance. Barring any drastic shifts with the rest of the 00z model guidance, we're starting to narrow down to a FL southwest coast to FL central panhandle landfall. The further ahead we move in time, the more likely internal core processes (mostly intensity) and angle of approach to the coastline will be the main factors that determine where Fay will be heading. Hope this helps.