Just read Clark's post as I write this myself. With exception to minor ( or faster ) internal core fluctuations, it would certainly appear that Fay will pass over or near Key West, and then northward from there. Granted, 30-50 miles in the grand scheme of things means little with regards to overall accuracy of forecast. Yet, such a deviation would mean lessor or greater impacts for those on Florida's East coast. Here again, what remains quite uncertain is whether Fay is a tropical storm, a minimal hurricane , or stronger at the point of closest pass to the Keys and S. Florida. Interesting, though Clark made reference to the GFS, the one subtle difference I took from the 0Z data, is that Fay is practically stalled out for approx. 36 hrs. when just over or north of Key West. Could this be indicative of the Central Plains ridge finally building in, yet now temporarily halting the northward motion. If such a COL occured, might we have a strengthening hurricane on our hands? Will be interesting to see if the other models trend towards such a "near stall" of foward motion. Given the rich heat content of the S.W. Gulf waters, this would further add to the impact on much of the southern half of Florida, but most notibly wherever the eventual landfall might occur.