Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sun Aug 17 2008 10:29 AM
Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches up for the Keys

Hope this helps clear things up; it's from the 5am NHC Discussion:

THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL VERY FAVORABLE AND FAY COULD BE NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL CUBA. IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF...THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING...BUT MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE HAS FAY NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL. FAY IS
EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF...EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST POINTS BELOW DO NOT
EXPLICITLY SHOW IT.

Right now it appears to just be brushing by the lower eastern part of Cuba, causing disruption to the storm. Watch and wait to see what happens after it clears that area, as that will be crucial to the strength of Fay in the short term future.