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Hope this helps clear things up; it's from the 5am NHC Discussion: THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL VERY FAVORABLE AND FAY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL CUBA. IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF...THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...BUT MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE HAS FAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL. FAY IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF...EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST POINTS BELOW DO NOT EXPLICITLY SHOW IT. Right now it appears to just be brushing by the lower eastern part of Cuba, causing disruption to the storm. Watch and wait to see what happens after it clears that area, as that will be crucial to the strength of Fay in the short term future. |