Intensity discussion from the latest Advisory. Looks like NHC is pulling some hair this morning too.

TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008 (edited~danielw)

...THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...WITH
THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING 10 TO 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS STILL LIGHT ENOUGH FOR STRENGTHENING
TO OCCUR IF FAY CAN DEVELOP AN INNER CORE. THE SHIPS AND GFDL
MODELS FORECAST FAY TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36-48
HR...WHILE THE HWRF...WHICH KEEPS FAY OVER WATER LONGER...FORECASTS
A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 1/2 HURRICANE IN 48-60. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL...WITH FAY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL
ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. FAY COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN
FORECAST IF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE FORMS...OR IF IT TRACKS MORE
TO THE WEST AND STAYS LONGER OVER WATER.