| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 03:18 PM |
|
Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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Quote:
So then how are people completely 100% sure Fay is going to strike Fort Myers directly? I'm still confused..As previously stated I've never been through a hurricane in my life, got all my supplies and stuff done, but just unsure as to how NHC and other models like BAMS can predict where she will land, and where to watch it. How sure can we be that Fay is going to be a Cat 1 when she hits Ft Myers? I remember Andrew and Katrina on TV, from New Hampshire, and they said then that the hurricanes were unpredictable and could do anything, so how can I be sure that this hurricane will strike me directly? What is the percentage? Why do the graphs keep shifting?
Another thing, you mean to tell me that anyone in the cone will be affected by this storm? So a hurricane is like a massive storm affecting more than one state at a time? This is also confusing to me, because you said the line is the center of the storm, so in essence, the line is the eye? Can someone help? I'm really starting to be confused..
The NHC will never say where or when a storm will hit. The line represents a 2/3 chance of where the eye(or center) of the storm will go. The cone represents the variance of areas as to where the eye will go. Fay has TS winds stretching out 105 miles in either direction, so if you are within 105 miles of the eye the storm will have some effect on you. Obviously the further away, the less of an effect.
There are numerous models used in determining where a storm will go or not go. Sometimes a reliable model gets bad information and spits out a bad line. The NHC looks at all the model runs, plus other factors in an attempt to determine a path. That's the line I would go with, bearing in mind the possible variance.
I am not a met, so I can't give you all the environmental reasons, I just read the tea leaves.
So we have a 2/3 chance of getting hit, or will we get hit based on the cone of uncertainty? I'm just trying to get myself to come to terms with what to expect. Based on NHC plots, is fort myers going to be a direct Cat 1 hit? How quick can this change?