Brad in Miami
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Aug 17 2008 03:40 PM
Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward

Quote:

Quote:



The line represents a 2/3 chance of where the eye(or center) of the storm will go. The cone represents the variance of areas as to where the eye will go.




No, not correct . . . maybe off topic - and I apologize if it is - but I think important to clarify for anyone relying on that statement. The NHC certainly is not saying there is a 2/3 chance of the center of the storm traveling along "the line." I think you may be referring to some comments from someone at the NHC yesterday which, if I'm correct, were to the effect that there is a 2/3 chance that the center will travel SOMEWHERE in the "cone" (which even implies a 1/3 chance the center will not only be far from "the line," but will be outside "the cone"). Obviously, the 2 are very different.

Even if the "2/3 chance in the cone" is not correct - and I don't think that's actually the definition of the "cone" on the NHC's own site - the NHC does not yet have the ability to predict this storm, or likely any storm, with that much precision, i.e., to predict with 67% accuracy a line along which the center will travel that far out in time or distance.



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