Hi everyone, I read y'all intensely but hardly ever post. I am currently poised right on Fay's track at 2 p.m. Wednesday at hurricane status well inland ... but of course, who knows what will happen once she's out over open water. I have been studying the plots all day and am wondering if anyone can clarify which computer models reference other computer models, and which are completely independent. IOW, if several models reference one that has faulty information or unreliable data, all bets are off; they could show Fay's projected track and seem to give the viewer a sense of consensus, when in reality it's a consensus of reference rather than a consensus of independent information compiled and forecasted. Also, is there any one model that has shown a higher percentage of accuracy over the years? I seem to remember in the cases of Frances and Katrina that their eventual paths were accurately predicted by the same model, but I can't recall which one that was.