I just got massively headfaked and nearly posted something that would have been rather bogus as an observation.... on the Key West long range radar, it appears there's a clean rotation over the island SSW of Havana. With the extreme range and terrain, that looked like it might be the COC, and rather, well, puny.

Its not, as the IR loop off GOES-E or the floater makes clear. In fact, the last frame off that floater looks like the COC is stacking itself quite nicely and may have relocated NW a bit from where it was a few frames prior. That nasty little "fuel tank cap" on top of the last frame (the dark dot) looks rather ominous too; it will be interesting to see how that holds in the next few frames into the overnight hours.

It DOES appear to have a more northward component in the last few frames, but that may be a jog - these things do that and over longer periods of time the movement tends to average back out.

The good news is that by tomorrow morning we should have a significant tightening of the model guidance since we'll have more path under us. The bad news is that another 12 hours will be gone on time before some gets to have fun.