00Z runs... 2D

I would expect a slight shift back to the right tonight by the NHC forecast...... back towards tampa. Interesting to note.. the morning runs go west it seems and then the night runs go east. looks like the shallow core (BAMS) are on the west side of guidence and the GFDL/HWRF are on the east side. To me, thats a headach for the HRD guys!

I think based on doppler radar data i seen from Cuba.. the turn to the north is starting and a slow down has occurred... my question now, can fay stack itself before its crosses Cuba in the morning/2morrow? seen some impressive "HOT Towers" tonight, but then again i see some shear on the west side of the system, affecting the outflow and system. The big player i think now is the shortwave piece of energy coming out of the plains... seems to me in the water vapor, its a little father east than i think the GFS had it by now?

Can't wait to read the essay, i mean discussion tonight for the 11pm pkg