Chances are 50-50 for a Category 1 Hurricane. And probably less than 20% for a Category 2, depending on the actual track and speed.

I'll have to check the SHIPS model.

Previous Rapid intensifier was Hurricane Charley in 2004. Made Cat 4 just prior to landfall in the Port Charlotte, FL area.
Charley was also forecast to go further north before making landfall, but a front moved through the GOM and Charley made a hard right turn into the Port Charlotte area with very little warning.

Listen to officical statements, Watches and Warnings. But trust your eyes too!