What would happen to the new models?? Well, if you and others are right about a poleward motion commencing at this time, than it looks like we have a NEW GAME! Follow the bouncing short wave.....

I am reluctant to be out-guessed ( again ) by this quirky storm that some others on another Forum site refer to as " The Joker". Have to admit, but thought it funny. Latest satellite and Cuban radar suggest to me too, that a northward turn may have started. Whether we are really dealing with a significantly decoupled system, only visible satellite will confirm. The fact that NHC earlier this evening suggested that little or no motion occurred for part of this evening, suggests to me that Fay may be deepening and getting more organized. Intensity and organization aside, even if we have witnessed a northward motion, it remains uncertain that this may only be some jog, and that a more N.W. motion could again ensue. For the time being however, and until Fidel and his "off limits" air space prove otherwise, I must concur that Fay indeed "appears" to be moving somewhere between 340/350 degrees. As a side note, it has been the "trusty" European model, which has most consistantly indicated a motion eventually taking Fay off Florida's E. coast. Curiously, the European model has been an Eastward "outlyer" of models with regards to Fay's motion.

Latest 0Z GFS data indicates that while the short wave presently in the Eastern U.S, that after 42 hours, most of the troughs energy will be pulling up and away. At this time, the GFS indicates that the 500mb W. Atlantic ridge will be building in from the east. Appears to want to temporarily trap Fay off of the N. Florida coastline. Am curiously waiting for the 2:00a.m. intermediate advisory to see if any wording or coordinates seem indicative of the more northward percieved motion. "If" such motion is confirmed, than we have all new initialized positions ( along with a different forward motion ) for the various models to ingest. I would be personally surprised however if we were to see a significant shift for the 5:00am discussion and position. Knowing the staff at N.H.C., I would imagine them far more comfortable to see visable satellite, prior to commiting to a course change based on IR, little surface data, and a storm perhaps less than well defined. Then, and only then might we see significant model ( and official ) course changes, perhaps for the 11:00a.m package tomm.