dem05
(User)
Mon Aug 18 2008 07:25 AM
Re: Posts

I too must jump on board to agree that a reformation has likely occurred. Interesting, as the mid level center moved right over very tall mountains and the odds were against it, but I guess nothing is impossible. On my patient wait for the heavy thunderstorms to clear the Cuban Radar Site (was waiting to see the radar resolution to improve as the rain fade affect passed). It is apparent on radar that the surface circulation south of Cuba is gone now. This mid level entity is holding together pretty good so far and is about halfway across Cuba at this time. Looking at the mean motion and sorting out the lurch to the west north west earlier today and the reformation to the north tonight...It looks like the 24 hour forcasts from yesterday are verified and the track remains relatively unchanged with a current mean motion to the northwest. If the reformation is confirmed, the structure is much improved and could be over the gulf in 3-6 hours. May not be the best solution after all from the west coast of Florida, as the system could be in better shape than expected when entering the SE Gulf and Florida Straits. Also, cutting to the NW of the ULL now/sooner than later could assist in the outflow process of Fay in the SE Gulf. Under such circumstances, she will have a better chance at becoming a Cat 1. Otherwise, even with short term shifts in motion (wnw earlier today, and NW to NNW following this possible reformation) no reason to discount the current forcast track for a west florida storm.


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