Key West long range radar shows a circulation along the northern coast of Cuba about 70 miles east of Havana, or about 23.1N, 81.2W. If this is the actual surface circulation, it has moved rather quickly to this point since the 5pm advisory, and it will soon emerge over water. The surface circulation could be a little farther south of this point, but without recon info, visible sat, and adequate radar imagery, we really can't tell. I'm interested to see where the NHC places the center at the 8pm advisory.

If the surface center is at this spot, the storm is not too poorly organized and will likely begin intensifying shortly. There does seem to be more convection on the western side than several hours ago, even though it is not tightly wrapped at this point.