well see the NHC 5pm discussion caught was i was thinking/writing early in post #82074

... i just didn't really go into detail that a mesoscale feature was spinning around toward key west. Plus with the help of two recons at the time and level II super res. data from Key West... i could tell the "coc" was still off shore at 3pm EDT... and the meso was clearly visible in the new super resolution data.

The big thing that caught my eye this afternoon, is the contracting of winds to the center...and the large blow-up of convection to the northwest of the center... what i think was happening... like last night.. a mid level low fired up and got going... this time is appeared it was begining to "pull around" toward the surface center, which i think is the reason we saw Fay kinda slow down... wobble if you will... as the mid level center was trying to catch up with the surface center... with the help of RSO Vis oF Fay... i think it kinda shows what i'm talking about... notice how the storms expand out in all directions... very good outflow aloft... a little bit of shear to the west, but this is going to be a compact storm for right now and as it crosses over Florida. THE BIG QUESTION down the road is what happens after 60hrs...

Tonight's 00z runs will be interesting

Attached is a image from Key West.. To me the surface center is Directly north of the Radar.. about 10-20 miles