Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Aug 18 2008 09:40 PM
Re: Some evening thoughts...

well recon center fix has:

A. Time of Center Fix: 19th day of the month at 1:10:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25°03'N 81°52'W (25.05N 81.87W)
B. Center Fix Location: 34 miles (55 km) to the N (351°) from Key West, FL, USA
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 997mb (29.44 inHg) - Extrapolated
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the east quadrant at 0:57:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 850mb
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) in the southwest quadrant at 1:15Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 21°C (70°F) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the E (91°) from the flight level center

Notice too that the G-IV is heading into New Orleans area... they completed there GOM mission..

With regards to Fay... i think Dry air is winning at this time... until we can get a burst of convection on the south side of the center, the chances of it making hurricane strength at landfall is fading i think.. which is a good thing!