Overall the system is still moving N with a dg angle of 5-10dg but a general turn to the NE is expect over the next 6-12hrs making landfall by sunrise and moving across the state Tuesday and exiting somewhere between Vero beach- Daytona beach. Watching the radar, you can see the dry air trough keeping Fay from progressing much past Ft Myers. I think we seen almost all of the due north movement and it will follow the NE moisture flow of the mid-levels. Landfall near Marco island-Bonita Springs looks about right!

It still may make hurricane force by the 5am landfall but right now its a 50-50 chance.