(Weather Guru)

Tue Aug 19 2008 12:41 AM

Re: the cobra maneuver

Quote:

I would advise everyone to not put a lot of faith in the NHC track at this moment beyond about 48 hrs...it looks solid thru 48, but the the model data REALLY breaks down, and they are using a compromise...the are averaging all the solutions and taking a line down the middle...usually that is very accurate, but in this case with all the divergent modelling it's not going to give you the right answer, more than likely. This is not a knock on the NHC, BTW...the data does not lend itself to a clear cut answer.

The new GFS stalls Fay off of the Cape for about 18 hours, then back across FL, coming out at Tampa, then ANOTHER FL landfall in the Panhandle this weekend near Fort Walton Beach.

Thats weird. Is this normal for a storm like this to do such a thing?

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