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Looking at the big picture and looking over current upper level maps, really cannot discount the GFS model. The GFS has been showing this turn back to the west across Florida for a couple days now before the others as the ridge builds back in the next 24-36 hours. Even bringing the storm further south then what it started with. The new 18z run takes it 20-30 miles off Melbourne area and then straight shot west back across central Florida exiting near Tampa area then moving northwest and eventually north into the panhandle area. Seeing how this storm structure as held its own and even gotten better through the day with a nice inner core wouldnt surprise me one bit to see this get to Cat 2 strength over the warm gulf stream. I feel we will be seeing further south adjustments to the track as time goes along, this was noted in the 5pm discussion. Folks in central and northern Florida will want to pay close attention to this over the next day... |