took a break from the radar for a few hours... last i looked it was trudging over northern okeechobee county. expected to see it near yeehaw junction at 11, but there it is in indian river county... edging northeastward and nearing the coastline around sebastian inlet. presentation on radar and satellite has decayed markedly in the last 2-3 hrs, with a noticeable dry slot and a considerable deterioration of the inner eyewall. am willing to bet that will be short lived.. that tomorrow morning the inner eyewall convection will recover as the core moves over water with considerable heat content.
willing to put my future philosophy on the storm out at this time. believe that fay is going to rebuild an inner core tomorrow and deepen rapidly at some point going into thursday. think the nhc track is fairly sound.. would edge my target window more from jacksonville to brunswick (bullseye at the ga/fl border, st marys ga) with a more gradual left turn... think the storm will clear the coastline enough to do some substantial deepening and be a significant hurricane by thursday pm. expect it to remain compact enough that wind damage will be in a relatively narrow swath, say 30-50 miles dia. i don't think the kind of deepening shown on the gfdl and hwrf are impossible given the compact nature of the storm. however, counting on odds that eyewall replacement or tepid waters at the immediate coast will have it weakening a tad at landfall. think the nhc official is at the bottom of the range i'd expect for landfall.. best bet winds 80-90kt. minor chance of major hurricane winds, but highly uncertain. expect the storm to be near or over the florida panhandle by sunday.
keep in mind that's just my best guess. if the storm hugs the coastline it may never get above tropical storm status. if it turns left as hard as the global consensus it'll probably be a force to be reckoned with in the gulf. if it swings a wider arc, georgia beware.
HF 0329z20august