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Avila in the 11:00 discussion is clearly at wit's end with Fay: Steering currents have remained very light...consequently Fay has barely moved since yesterday. Global models insist on the development of a high pressure system north of Fay. This pattern should force the cyclone to move slowly toward the west-northwest or west...a motion we have been forecasting but has not materialized yet. Nevertheless...the developing steering pattern gives ME no option but to forecast a turn to the left which should begin soon. This is consistent with all global models and track guidance. Fay is starting to remind me of "Twister," an absurd movie with horrible met advice...the tornado remains in the same location all during one night...kind of 'stalled" like Fay. |