cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Aug 25 2008 09:41 AM
Re: Fay & Future Features

Just a few items to add to what has already been said of 94L -
94L may not be as much like Fay as one might think:

Based on surface reports and microwave images, it appears that 94L has a better chance of already having a sufficiently tight closed surface circulation, and not merely an incredibly impressive mid-level low. Additionally, it is unlikely that 94 gets upgraded over land.. and to that point, also much more likely that 94L spends a good deal more time over warm water while it is still getting its act together than Fay did.

94 is already land-locked. Fay had a brief moment in time where she still could have scooted on out to sea. This will not be the case with 94. If indeed it is our next TC, as looks probable, it already has nowhere to go but on to one or more landfalls.

As for looking to models right now - forget them. None of the most recent model runs initialize 94L in much of any worthwhile way, if at all. Listen to what the NHC has to say. If you can't resist following along with the models, at least wait until tomorrow's runs are in. By then they may have had time to digest some accurate info and process it a little better.



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